In October, the domestic steel market price shock operation. Iron ore prices fluctuated, the average price of scrap fell, the average price of coke rose, and the monthly cost support continued to strengthen; In November, the northern region gradually entered winter, construction projects will gradually face seasonal change pressure, but with the support of stable growth policy, infrastructure investment is still expected to maintain a high growth rate, construction steel demand is expected to maintain a certain toughness. However, the manufacturing industry has declined, the new orders index and the new export orders index have fallen to the contraction range, the contraction of demand on the recovery of enterprise production constraints or will gradually appear, the demand for steel manufacturing will be released under pressure. Under the common influence of favorable policy expectations, gradual supply contraction, off-season effect, and cost resilience pressure, the domestic steel market in November 2023 May present a first rise and then a shock bottom market.
In October, under the combined influence of multiple factors such as the severe and complex international environment, the continued recovery of the domestic economy, the effective landing of the previous policy, the financial policy again, the limited production reduction effect of steel mills, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the toughness of raw material cost support, the domestic steel market as a whole showed a downward trend in October.
From the perspective of foreign environment, the external environment is still complex and severe, the conflict in the Middle East is heating up rapidly, the interest rate hike in Europe and the United States will be suspended, and the global manufacturing PMI index has further recovered in the contraction range, showing that the global economy is under pressure to recover, but the pressure of demand contraction still exists.
From the perspective of the domestic environment, the domestic economy is recovering well, but domestic demand is still insufficient, and the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated. In the fourth quarter, the state will strive to expand domestic effective demand, strive to stimulate the vitality of business entities, do a good job of implementing the policies that have been issued, and continue to promote the continuous improvement of economic operation, the continuous enhancement of internal impetus, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the continuous elimination of risks and hidden dangers, and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals.
In summary, the domestic steel market will show a pattern of “complex and severe external environment, domestic economic recovery, positive factors accumulation, traditional peak season to off-season, and raw material costs to maintain resilience”. Under the common influence of favorable policy expectations, gradual contraction of supply, off-season effect, and cost resilience pressure, the domestic steel market in November may present a first rise and then a shock bottom market.
Post time: Nov-02-2023