From the demand side of the construction machinery industry, infrastructure and real estate are its main downstream demand side. For the infrastructure industry, special bonds are still the main source of power to promote infrastructure investment. According to incomplete statistics, as of the beginning of November 2023, the new special bonds have been issued 358685 billion yuan, the issuance progress has reached 94.4%, which indicates that the new special bond issuance progress has entered the final stage, in November, there is a high probability that the remaining new special bonds will be issued, and the Ministry of Finance stipulates that the schedule of issuance at the end of 10 has a certain lag. At the same time, the scale of special refinancing bonds issued from the end of October has exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, which will become the “continuing force” of special bonds, jointly increasing the “financial power” for infrastructure investment, and there will still be “trillion national bonds” in the fourth quarter, which will more strongly support the construction of major projects around the country, driving the expansion of effective investment. Driving the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter is expected to maintain a strong strength, under the premise of continuous improvement of the funding situation, the new start of major projects and the progress of implementation will also be accelerated, thus stimulating the release of some rush demand.
As for the real estate industry, the Central Financial Work Conference held at the end of October proposed to promote a virtuous cycle between finance and real estate, improve the main regulatory system and capital supervision of real estate enterprises, improve the macro-prudential management of real estate finance, and equally meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership. We will better support the demand for rigid and improved housing, accelerate the construction of “three major projects” such as affordable housing, and build a new model of real estate development. Then on November 7, the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the General Administration of Financial Supervision and the Securities Regulatory Commission jointly convened several housing enterprises to discuss the financial situation of the industry and the financing needs of real estate enterprises. On November 8, the central bank also said that after more than 20 years of long cycle boom, the real estate market is undergoing a major transformation and finding a new equilibrium. In the short term, the early real estate policy is still in the process of landing effective, the “gold nine silver ten” real estate sales end has improved slightly, but limited by the limited improvement of the real estate financing end, which also restricts the policy for the real estate investment end and the development end of the driving effect, the housing market for the domestic construction machinery market demand is still a drag.
Therefore, although the project funding situation continues to improve, but because the northern market is facing the continuous intrusion of early winter snow, the southern market will also face the impact of large-scale rainfall, the start and construction of domestic infrastructure projects will likely show a slowdown after the start of work, and the housing construction market will enter a major transformation stage in the favorable policy. In the short term, the domestic construction machinery sales will form a certain drag; The external demand market of construction machinery shows a continuous weakening trend, which makes the “steel demand” of construction machinery show a limited recovery of domestic demand, and the situation of external demand continues to weaken.
Post time: Nov-09-2023