In September 2023, the steel circulation industry in China experienced a significant revival, signaling the transition from the off-peak to the peak season in the domestic steel market. However, the market still faces myriad challenges in the short term, with factors such as a complex international environment, overlapping policies, lower stocking demand than anticipated, and the expected expansion of terminal demand contributing to uncertainties. Looking ahead to October, the steel market’s overall performance will be influenced by multiple factors.
In October, the Chinese steel market will undoubtedly face multiple influences. The international environment remains volatile and complex, as countries like the United States and the United Kingdom have suspended their interest rate hikes. However, the Chinese economy continues to show signs of accelerated recovery, leading to steady growth in production and supply. Despite these positive signs, domestic demand still falls short, necessitating the consolidation of foundations for recovery.
The cumulative effects of various policies and the increase in positive factors provide room for the release of peak season demand. Furthermore, the introduction of the autumn and winter air pollution plan is expected to impact output control, potentially leading to a stabilization in supply. With evident market supply and demand dynamics at play, the market trend will be influenced by these and other factors.
The international situation has become increasingly complex and severe, as major economies like the United States and the United Kingdom have decided to suspend the process of raising interest rates. Meanwhile, China’s national economy is accelerating its recovery, leading to a steady increase in production and supply. Despite these positive developments, domestic demand remains insufficient, and the foundation for the steel market’s recovery still needs consolidation. However, policy effects are continuously accumulating, with positive factors on the rise. As a result, there is still room for the release of peak season demand, especially considering the introduction of the air pollution plan for autumn and winter. The implementation of flat output control may also impact the market by balancing supply and demand.
Taking into account these market dynamics, it is estimated that the domestic steel market will experience a phased rebound in October, albeit under the influence of shocks. The market’s performance will depend on the combined impact of favorable policies, improved demand, shrinking supply, and increased costs. Thus, while obstacles persist, positive factors are expected to stimulate growth and contribute to the recovery of the steel industry.
In summary, September marked a positive turning point for the steel circulation industry in China, as the market shifted from the off-peak season to the peak season. However, challenges remain in the short term due to a complex international environment, overlapping policies, and other factors affecting domestic demand. Looking ahead to October, the market will continue to experience fluctuations but is expected to rebound in phases supported by favorable policies, improved demand, shrinking supply, and increased costs. As the industry consolidates its recovery, it remains crucial to monitor the evolving market dynamics and policy measures to ensure sustained growth.
Post time: Sep-26-2023