As China looks forward to the year 2024, experts predict that the general direction of stable economic growth will remain unchanged. The national economic growth rate is expected to hover around 5%, and this positive trend is expected to have a direct impact on the steel industry. It is anticipated that both national steel production and demand will experience steady growth in the coming year, with total steel demand (including exports) expected to increase by approximately 3% over the previous year. This growth is not expected to hinder national economic progress, but rather contribute positively to it.
In line with the goal of maintaining economic stability and promoting growth, the Chinese State Council recently announced its decision to issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of 2023. This move is indicative of a more proactive fiscal policy, which is set to strengthen moderately in the coming year. As a significant portion of these funds will be channeled into investments, their subsequent multiplier effect is expected to have a positive impact on economic stability and further drive the growth of steel demand in 2024. These developments are anticipated to directly or indirectly translate into increased domestic steel demand, contributing to the overall growth of the industry.
Furthermore, the stability and growth of the steel industry in China in 2024 are also expected to be influenced by the country’s monetary policies. The Politburo meeting proposed the continuation of a prudent monetary policy in the new year, emphasizing the need for flexibility, moderation, and effectiveness. This approach demonstrates China’s commitment to implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with an expected increase in its level of looseness. As a result, the market is likely to experience reasonable liquidity and a slight decline in overall interest rates, creating a favorable financial environment for the steel market.
The impact of these policies extends beyond the steel industry, as they are also anticipated to have a positive effect on other key sectors. For instance, indicators of the real estate market, such as sales and development investment, are expected to stabilize and show signs of a rebound in 2024. This trend is expected to play a significant role in stabilizing domestic demand for steel and bolstering the confidence of market participants. As a result, the expectations for the steel market in China are optimistic, with the potential for sustained growth in the coming year.
In conclusion, the Chinese steel industry is poised for growth and stability in 2024, supported by the country’s overall economic trajectory and the implementation of proactive fiscal and monetary policies. The anticipated increase in national economic growth, coupled with the injection of funds into investments and the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, is expected to drive the growth of steel demand in the domestic market. These factors, along with the anticipated stabilization and rebound of the real estate sector, paint a positive outlook for the steel industry in China in the coming year.
Post time: Dec-14-2023