China’s steel export data in 2023 was undeniably impressive, and many are now looking forward to what the situation will be like in 2024. The preliminary analysis mainly presents two major features for the upcoming year. The first is the expectation that China will maintain a large quantity scale in its steel exports. Overall, the country’s steel export environment will be more friendly in 2024, rather than worse than the previous year. There are several factors contributing to this positive outlook for China’s steel exports in the upcoming year.
First of all, the world economic growth rate is expected to increase in 2024. This anticipated growth will have a positive impact on China’s steel export market. Additionally, it is expected that the monetary policies of European and American countries will shift in a loose direction in the new year. This shift includes a move from aggressive interest rate increases to stopping interest rate increases, or even cutting interest rates. These policy changes are likely to create a more favorable environment for China’s steel exports.
Furthermore, signs of easing Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations have been observed, and the United States may have an objective requirement to reduce tariffs on Chinese imported goods to alleviate or resolve rising prices. This potential reduction in tariffs could further benefit China’s steel export market. Another factor contributing to the positive outlook for China’s steel exports in 2024 is the increasing importance of exports to countries and regions along the “Belt and Road” in China’s foreign trade system. This includes the increasing importance of steel exports to these regions.
Finally, China’s steel products are known for their high quality and low price in the global trading system. This competitive advantage is expected to continue benefiting China’s steel export market in the upcoming year. Based on these factors, it is expected that China’s steel export volume in 2024 will not be less than 80 million tons, and may even reach 90 million tons, highlighting the country’s continued large quantity scale in steel exports.
While China is expected to maintain a large quantity scale in its steel exports, the export growth level is anticipated to drop significantly in 2024. This is a natural result of the already high comparison base from 2023, where steel exports reached 90 million tons. With such a high comparison base, it is unrealistic to hope for a higher level of growth in the upcoming year. As a result, the export growth rate for China’s steel is expected to fall back, and it will fall back significantly in 2024.
In addition to the high comparison base, the increase in steel production in other countries around the world, except China, has weakened the substitution effect of Chinese steel. This weakening is also expected to contribute to the drop in export growth level for China’s steel in 2024. However, despite this anticipated drop in export growth rate, it is important to note that China’s steel exports will continue to maintain a large volume in the new year, highlighting the country’s continued strength in the global steel market.
In conclusion, China’s steel export data in 2023 was impressive, and the preliminary analysis for 2024 presents a largely positive outlook for the country’s steel exports. While the export growth level is expected to drop significantly in the upcoming year, China is anticipated to maintain a large quantity scale in its steel exports. With favorable factors such as an expected increase in the world economic growth rate, shifting monetary policies in European and American countries, and easing Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, China’s steel exports are poised to remain strong in 2024.
Post time: Dec-12-2023