Since this week, the steel price has risen significantly compared with last week, the average price of the two varieties of hot coil is 70-80 yuan higher than last week, the average thread plate has also increased by about 100 points, and the price quotation of East China rebar has exceeded the 4000 yuan mark. Combined with the same period last year, the market in November this year is very similar to that in November last year, which is launched under the background of general off-season demand, increased policy stimulus and stronger macro expectations. Even this year’s market started earlier than last year’s. On October 25 this year, the bottom of the plate began to rebound, and so far has been more than 400 points from the high, and the spot has also risen by 200-300 yuan. Can the market move out of last year’s level? The release of the epidemic last year gave the market unlimited space for imagination, and this year’s recovery situation seems to be more focused on reality. Last year in doubt in the final high price to receive winter storage, this year’s steel trade generally losses, but more unwilling to fight to stockpile a large number of winter storage resources to fight uncertainty next year. And this year, steel mills use financial derivatives tools, hedging operations have a higher space, and do not necessarily transfer inventory pressure from a large number of spot winter storage resources.
Will demand be good next year? No one can say for sure. The positive macro expectations represent expectations for the future. To now is to recognize the current market, on the plate to kill the opponent disc. Hot events are used to play, the steel market increased financial derivatives, is not simply based on the relationship between supply and demand, but give full play to the financial attributes of the capital game.
Looking back at this week’s market, after rising to a new stage high, it is also extremely sensitive to some external factors. Such as the supervision of iron ore prices, the coal mine fire accident in Lishi District of Luliang, Shanxi Province, and even the pursuit of large investments for the end of the US dollar tightening cycle and the global interest rate cut synchronous cycle have increased the volatility of the market.
In addition, we can see that this week, the network of new trillion funds to boost real estate, the meeting of Chinese and American leaders and other hot spots on the market impact is relatively large, market optimism gradually occupied the mainstream. However, this wave of market also does show the characteristics of macro resonance at home and abroad, resonance of the black industrial plate, and more capital and emotional subjects. It is necessary to be vigilant that the market is uniformly bullish, even if the direction is right, the rhythm is not right, and the funds, management and trading methods are not right, they face greater risk of loss.
From the current point of view, there is a certain cooling after the high market on Friday, the high level of the disk is recalled, and the spot is stable. At present, the overall market environment is more positive than negative, macro, industrial, capital and other aspects are still conducive to the market rise, but we need to be vigilant about the hot and dry market blindly chase up, bringing unnecessary callback losses. At present, there is a certain uncertainty in iron ore, coupled with the dislocation of the increase of raw materials and materials before, through the adjustment of price shocks, it will usher in a certain repair, which may be improved on both sides of spot profits and plate profits. Overall, the continued strong upward momentum has weakened, but at present do not go short.
Post time: Nov-21-2023