Fed rate cut forecast delayed
According to CME’s “Fed Watch,” there is a 30.8 percent chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged by March. Interest rate cut is expected to be delayed, the dollar index rose, bearish commodities.
With the data released by the US Department of Labor, the surge in US employment data, exceeding market expectations, will re-ring the inflation alarm bell for the Federal Reserve, delay the process of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index increased, commodity resonance down, overseas macro bearish fermentation, driving the domestic futures market continued to weaken, the spot market operation sentiment is depressed, and the trend of bearish steel prices.
Many places in Shanxi have entered the peak of coal transportation
With the surge in demand for electric coal in winter, Shanxi has entered the peak of coal transportation in many places. In the mining area of Yangquan City, coal enterprises have taken many measures to promote coal supply guarantee, and the daily export volume exceeds 60,000 tons.
At present, many coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, raw coal supply has increased, coke cost support has weakened, the first round of lifting has fallen, and steel enterprises are in the normal production maintenance stage, iron ore daily production has declined continuously, many steel enterprises in North China have narrowed profits, reduced the procurement cost of coke, iron ore and double coke have weakened, the cost has declined, and the price trend of steel has been negative.
According to incomplete statistics, at the beginning of January 2024, many provinces and cities such as Henan, Anhui, Shaanxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hunan and other provinces and cities held the groundbreaking ceremony of major projects in 2024, and major projects in many places across the country started concentrated, with a total investment of 2,483.237 billion yuan.
With the entry of 2024, the construction of major projects in Futures fall sharply
8 black rebar main fell 61, closed at 3950, down 1.52%; Hot roll main fell 55, closed at 4051, down 1.34%; Coking coal main fell 85, closed at 1786.5, down 4.54%; Coke main fell 89.5, closed at 2,450.5, down 3.52%; Iron ore fell 14 per cent, or 1.38 per cent, to 1000.
Comprehensive view
With the steel plant winter storage procurement progress has been more than half, the market macro policy expectations, high-speed iron, low inventory trading logic gradually changed, iron ore and dual coke prices fell, coke is expected to open the second round of reduction, the cost of support is weak, and in the traditional steel consumption off-season, downstream terminal demand weakened, social inventory gradually base, suppress market speculative demand release, Under the psychological effect of buying up and not buying down, the market is quiet, and the merchants are mostly watching, and it is expected that the steel price will be stable and weak tomorrow, with a range of 10-30 yuan/ton.
Post time: Jan-09-2024